Here are the the last 60 years’ worth of midterm losses, going back to the second Truman midterm, according to Wikipedia for election-on-election losses, which is the standard I use all around. For 2010 I’m using the current CNN projection of a 65 seat Republican gain and a 243 R – 192 D House. Click for full size goodness.
Congratulations, Mister President.
The time has come for the Senate Republicans to begin thinking about what to do with the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which this last cycle was run by Senator John Cornyn along with bureaucrat Rob Jesmer. Before any Republican endorses that team to go ahead and run the committee for another cycle, I urge them to consider alternatives.
The NRSC has the name and the databases to be a tremendous force for good for the party, much as the RGA was this cycle. But to do so it has to make the right decisions with those resources that it has. I submit that it could have done much better this year.
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Some will try to minimize the importance of any Republican gains tonight by saying the Democrats were bound to lose. Some will even say Democrats had a baked-in loss of 45 or more seats, which implies they had no hope of keeping the House at all, no matter what policy aims they worked to implement. The problem is, that’s nonsense.
Cutting to the chase: while the 2008 electorate was never, ever going to be duplicated in this or any midterm election’s turnout, previous midterm elections showed that the Democrats were capable of keeping the House, and therefore capable of keeping midterm losses down to reasonable figures. Here’s how.
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I’ve obtained a few documents and one link which really tell us where we are in California right now. Per the polling, which has remarkably projected in California little or no TEA party/Republican/Independent/conservative backlash at all, I still see Carly having a one third shot to win this, and if we saw polling which actually demonstrated a partisan enthusiasm gap, that number would have been much higher.
Because seriously, who or what is supposed to be motivating Democrats in California this year? Moonbeam Brown, who failed last time around? Babs Boxer, who couldn’t even get the Chronicle’s endorsement? Or maybe the high unemployment is the ticket for them? Get real.
Marty Wilson, the Carly for California Campaign Manager, has made more key points about the race, in a memo to “Interested Parties” I got a hold of. Third parties do better in California than other states. They don’t do well, but they pull in a few points, and the major polls ignore them. He’s also pointed out that Proposition 19 (Cannabis legalization) was supposed to help Democrats, but it’s likely to fail now. He predicts that Fiorina beats Boxer by three.
I don’t even know what a California recount would be like, but we might see one if it’s closer than that.
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Imagine if Sarah Palin promised reporters she’d take questions, then ran out from the event through the side door to avoid the questioning? Now imagine if Sharron Angle or Christine O’Donnell did it. The same shunned press would call them out for it and say they were fake or even avoiding accountability. Palin, of course, was accused of being entirely unqualified in part to avoiding high pressure press exposure, a charge Ginger Gibson is also leveling against O’Donnell.
Well, Babs Boxer has joined the club. I’m not expecting a rash of stories calling her an unqualified fake, seeking to avoid accountability for her 28 failed years in DC, though.
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That’s where we are now in the California Senate race. Babs Boxer’s campaign made an organized, coordinated effort to reach out to schools, supplying teachers with information to disseminate out to students telling them how to volunteer for the Boxer campaign. That is not in dispute. Boxer’s campaign has admitted to it and apologized for it.
Of course, what they’re really sorry about is getting caught, and about Boxer having her toughest campaign of her entire career. That’s 28 miserably ineffective years in DC if you recall, voting the party line for the most radical elements of the leftist agenda. She’s so divisive she even started a fight about Ohio’s electoral votes in 2004.
This is one of the more competitive Senate races in the country, and it’s part of the key battleground of five marginal seats held by Democrats that we could pick up, along with Nevada, West Virginia, Illinois, and Washington. Consider helping Carly Fiorina’s moneybomb today to keep her on the air and keep her shifting the polls our way.
It’s getting remarkably rough for the Democrats out here in California. Long, long time Assembly Speaker (and then after 1994 booted him out, San Francisco Mayor) Democrat Willie Brown has no confidence in any of the top Democrats, saying they have no ground operation at all. He applied that to Jerry Brown (Governor), Gavin Newsom (Lt. Governor), and Babs Boxer (Senate).
The Chamber of Commerce is also pounding on the Democrats, pointing out that No Ma’am Boxer bounced 143 checks in the House Bank scandal. No integrity. No honesty. She’s a thief.
Just one more reason we need to beat her and elect Carly Fiorina to the Senate.
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This is a relatively easy ballot to fill out this time. California Democrats are just that bad, down the line.
Governor: Meg Whitman. Easy call. No matter what you think of her, Jerry Brown was a disaster of a governor, and he has the nerve to ask to go back. That’s unacceptable.
Lieutenant Governor: Abel Maldonaldo. This guy probably doesn’t have any fans among conservatives, but seriously: Gavin Newsom is a whack job. Again, easy call.
Secretary of State: Damon Dunn. No problem voting for this guy who ran that other whack job Orly Taitz back to the fringe where she belongs.
Controller: Tony Strickland. Solid pick.
Treasurer: Mimi Walters. Bill Lockyer is so pathetic. Just go home. You’ve been in Sacramento too long.
Attorney General: Steve Cooley. The choice is LA or SF, and we all know what SF is every single time we look at Nancy Pelosi. We can’t afford a Nancy Pelosi Democrat that we get in Kamala Harris.
Insurance Commissioner: Mike Villines. This could become an especially important job as the Obamacare era comes to the state and insurance battles continues. We need a Republican.
State Board of Equalization, District 3: Michelle Steel. Again, do we really need more Tax and Spend Democrat up there?
US Senate: Carly Fiorina. A pro-life Republican for the first time in the Roe era. We can do it.
US Representative, District 45: Mary Bono Mack. Hey, she voted against Obamacare, and we know Steve Pougnet will alternate between padding his wallet and padding the treasury.
State Assembly: Brian Nestande. We need all the sanity we can get up there.
Judges: I really don’t know these judges, but I know that our last two governors have been terrible, with even the Girly Man appointing extremist left-wing judges, and so by default I’m rejecting every judge up there.
State Superintendent of Instruction: I’m not up on this race and so I’ll just do the opposite of the LA Times and vote Tom Torlakson. I don’t know if he’s any good and frankly I don’t think this should be an elective position. The Governor should control this.
Moreno Valley Unified School District Board: I got a flyer from the local union, and I’m voting the opposite: Anyone but Cleveland Johnson, Oscar Valdepena, and Jesus Holguin.
And now onto the propositions:
Proposition 19: Cannabis legalization. If this passes I admit I will enjoy watching California fight for federalism, but I can’t support it. No.
Proposition 20: Congressional redistricting goes to the Arnie/Democrat-created Commission and out of direct oversight from the voters. The goal is to gerrymand for the center left and away from conservatives. No.
Proposition 21: A car tax. No.
Proposition 22: Enforces an earmark specifically for transportation, redevelopment, and local government. Part of California’s budget crisis stems from idiotic restrictions like these draining power from the legislature. It tries to mandate higher spending in essence. No.
Proposition 23: Suspends AB32, the California Cap and Tax, until unemployment is sustained at or below 5.5% for a year. I’ll take what I can get. Yes.
Proposition 24: Tax hike on businesses. No.
Proposition 25: Changes requirement to pass a budget (and raise taxes) from 2/3 majority to simple majority, thus permanently removing the one bit of leverage conservatives have. No.
Proposition 26: Implements a 2/3 vote requirement for certain new local taxes. Yes.
Proposition 27: Eliminates the Arnie/Democrat-created redistricting Commission. Ensures districting stays with elected officials. Believe it or not but the gerrymander helps conservatives have a voice in the CRP and then cause trouble in Sacramento come budget time. Yes.
Riverside County Proposition K: Bond issue for trains. They say it’s also for freeways but you know that these people just love big train boondoggles. No.
Riverside County Proposition L: Lock in massive, unaffordable benefits to unions. Union boondoggle with scare tactics behind it. This isn’t driven by “public safety” but rather by union fatcats. No.
Riverside County Proposition M: Allow adjustment of the aforementioned union benefits via popular vote with no hidden pro-union restrictions. Yes.
Moreno Valley Proposition N: Advisory vote on having an elected Mayor. Yes, even though it’s only symbolic. The city is poorly run and I’d love for there to be a counterweight to the clearly ineffective city manager system.
Moreno Valley Proposition O: Advisory vote on having an election to change city law to have an elected Mayor. Huh? Well, for the above reason, Yes.
Moreno Valley Proposition P: Hotel tax hike. We just had two freaking hotels built on my side of town, and now we want to tax them? No.
It’s no wonder that the Chamber of Commerce, feared by Barack Obama, is ready to spend another $1.25 million educating Americans about the dismal failure that Babs Boxer’s 28 years in DC have been. Since Carly Fiorina started her ad offensive and kept piling on, the polls have been moving.
The television barrage has come just at the right time. While a month ago it looked like Boxer was threatening to take a double digit lead and make the race far less competitive, the newest poll has it a virtual tie.
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One goal’s already been hit, but they’re raising the bar. Retire Boxer.
My latest projection has this a competitive race, right on the second tier roughly. She’s running ads on television statewide and she’s fighting hard. This is an expensive state and she could use the help. The NRSC is also putting money in, so we’re not alone in helping out.
Remember: national Democrats were so worried about this state that Barack Obama flew out here twice for two separate fundraisers for Boxer. This is a rare and special chance, and I’m excited.