I’ve obtained a few documents and one link which really tell us where we are in California right now. Per the polling, which has remarkably projected in California little or no TEA party/Republican/Independent/conservative backlash at all, I still see Carly having a one third shot to win this, and if we saw polling which actually demonstrated a partisan enthusiasm gap, that number would have been much higher.
Because seriously, who or what is supposed to be motivating Democrats in California this year? Moonbeam Brown, who failed last time around? Babs Boxer, who couldn’t even get the Chronicle’s endorsement? Or maybe the high unemployment is the ticket for them? Get real.
Marty Wilson, the Carly for California Campaign Manager, has made more key points about the race, in a memo to “Interested Parties” I got a hold of. Third parties do better in California than other states. They don’t do well, but they pull in a few points, and the major polls ignore them. He’s also pointed out that Proposition 19 (Cannabis legalization) was supposed to help Democrats, but it’s likely to fail now. He predicts that Fiorina beats Boxer by three.
I don’t even know what a California recount would be like, but we might see one if it’s closer than that.
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