There is a rush tonight to try to identify the true interpretation of the Republican electoral results. Many of them will be shared on the Internet, but this one is mine.

This wasn’t the first close race. Mitt Romney has won them previously. What’s different about tonight is that Rick Santorum pulled it off this time, This defied expectations, and went counter to everything I thought I knew about Team Santorum.

I conclude that the story of Tuesday night was not one of personality or of message. Instead, what happened was that the Santorum campaign proved that it has changed, and unlike before is becoming effective at turning out more voters than Team Romney, and as a result is capable of winning statewide primary elections.

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Economics projects a 94 EV defeat for Barack Obama

On February 3, 2012, in General, by Neil Stevens

Over at the American Enterprise Institute, James Pethokoukis modeled the economy and the effect of the economy on the 2012 elections. He calculated what unemployment would look like under 28 different scenarios, varying both job and labor force growth rates to cover the range of possibilities, ad the results look bad if there’s any sort of return to the previous trend, should job growth rates not grow sharply.

Even worse for the President, Pethokoukis applied a model by Ray Fair to guess the resulting share of the vote Barack Obama will win based on likely GDP growth rates. Pethokoukis calls the resulting prediction a “close race,” but it actually isn’t. Using Swingometer and some simple math, I think the prediction is one of a nearly 100 EV win for the Republican nominee.

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No, Ron Paul is not a threat to win the Iowa Caucuses

On December 13, 2011, in General, by Neil Stevens

It doesn’t matter what you think the new Public Policy Polling result says. It doesn’t matter how many gleeful Democrats are writing up news stories claiming it’s true. It’s not.

Ron Paul, King of Earmarks, Full Metal Truther, and Archbishop of the anti-American Gnostic Constitutionalists, is not going to win the Iowa caucuses or even get close for one simple reason.

He wins people who don’t vote, but the Iowa caucuses only admit Republicans.

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A convention with no majority

On December 8, 2011, in General, by Neil Stevens

Let’s imagine a Republican National Convention with no majority nominee on the first ballot. How do we think the first ballot will wind up? There are only so many candidates that are capable of getting enough delegates to stop that, so I expect the delegate count would wind up in the neighborhood of Newt Gingrich 40%, Mitt Romney 40%, Rick Perry 10%, Ron Paul 5%, and scattering votes making up the remaining 5%.

Even in the unlikely scenario that we get no majority, how do stop Mitt Romney (or Newt Gingrich) from finding the votes he needs simply by picking up delegates for whom Romney is a second choice, plus making promises to spend X number of dollars campaigning in selected states this cycle in order to win over party officials from various states? That’s a maneuver described to me by a friend as Pawlentying the vote.

Once the convention gets control, the voters lose any say. Though I think such an event is unlikely, it still troubles me that anyone would root for it.

The Union Leader’s endorsement record

On November 27, 2011, in General, by Neil Stevens

The New Hampshire Union Leader having endorsed Newt Gingrich in the Republican Presidential primary, I thought it would be worthwhile to look at how often the paper’s endorsed candidates actually go on to win the primary.

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Herman Cain: Read His Lips

On October 16, 2011, in General, by Neil Stevens

I made another video.

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Understanding Mitt Romney

On October 8, 2011, in General, by Neil Stevens

I made a video.

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Pennsylvania considering Electoral College split

On September 13, 2011, in General, by Neil Stevens

Governor Tom Corbett and Pennsylvania Republicans are considering legislation to change the allocation of Pennsylvania’s Presidential electors. Instead of awarding all 20 on a winner take all basis, the plan by Senate leader Dominic Pileggi would switch to the Congressional district model currently in use by Nebraska and Maine.

In Nebraska and Maine, the statewide popular vote for President only determines two Presidential electors, the two representing the states’ Senators. The remaining votes are allocated according to the popular vote in each House district. Nebraska’s second district breaking for Obama in 2008 did not shape the election, but if Pennsylvania follows this model, then the 2012 Electoral College scenarios change significantly. Here’s how.

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Nima Jooyandeh facts.