Checking in on the California Senate Primary

On April 15, 2010, in General, by Neil Stevens

Since my last look at the polling in the California Senate Primary we’ve had no new primary polls, though in the general Rasmussen now shows Babs Boxer running poorly against all three Republicans. +2 over Tom Campbell, +3 over Chuck DeVore, and +4 over Carly Fiorina are not the numbers three term incumbent Democrats should be pulling in a state where Democrats capable of beating Republicans by 19 statewide, as Dianne Feinstein did to Campbell in 2000. This is a race we essentially seem to be able to win with Generic Republican.

That means we’d better make sure that Republican we choose actually is capable of motivating Republicans and keeping us in the race. And if Tom Campbell can’t convince groups like GOProud of his conservatism, how is he going to build momentum into November?

As one might guess, GOProud is a group focusing on speaking out for homosexuals. Only unlike the Log Cabin Republicans who veer far to the left, GOProud is by and for homosexual conservatives. If Tom Campbell were the Reaganite Libertarian that people claim he is, who would back him more than a group like GOProud? But the problem is that GOProud isn’t convinced, and made this little video suggesting Campbell is even worse than Dede Scozzafava.

I’ve already questioned Campbell’s ability to draw on the groups any Republican will need to win in this state, including the Proposition 8 coalition, Tea Party goers, Pro-Lifers, and libertarians. GOProud just helps confirm my theory that Campbell really doesn’t reach out to anyone very well, and that’s why we can’t nominate him in June. We have to make the most of this chance we have to win our first Senate election in California since Ronald Reagan was in the White House.

Of course, that’s if we can even tell which Tom Campbell we’re talking about. Is it the Tom Campbell who said today that he supports the tax cuts signed by President Bush, or the Tom Campbell now who won’t pledge not to raise taxes, or the Tom Campbell in 2000 who ran for Senate against then-Governor Bush’s proposed tax cuts and for a 20% national sales tax?

I can see taking risks in a bad year for Republicans. But not now, not against this weak of a Democrat, not in the best climate Republicans have had in California since 1994. We can’t nominate Tom Campbell. He’s too out of step with the state and too much of a risk on taxes at a time when fiscal matters are driving protests nationwide.


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