On Divided Government and Spending

On November 10, 2006, in General, by Neil Stevens

[I forgot about the Jeffords mixed Congress in the first version of this article. The oversight has now been corrected.]

Now that the election is over, now is a good time to wrap up my previous posts on spending and divided government with a look ahead to the coming two years of divided government.

What kind are we going to see? (All figures in 2005 dollars, adjusted by CPI)

1969-1976: Republican President, Democratic Congress, end of Vietnam war. Spending up from $855 billion in 1968 to $1,275 billion in 1976. $52.5 billion/year growth, or 6.1% of initial budget.

1987-1992: Republican President, Democratic Congress, end of Cold War. Spending up from $1,723 billion in 1986 to $1,907 billion in 1992. $30.7 billion/year growth, or 1.8% of initial budget.

1995-2000: Democratic President, Republican Congress, ‘peacetime’. Spending up from $1,908 billion in 1994 to $2,021 billion in 2000. $19.1 billion/year growth, or 0.9% of initial budget

For comparison:

1977-1980: Democratic government, ‘peacetime’. Spending up from $1,275 billion in 1976 to $1,448 billion in 1980. $43.2 billion/year growth, or 3.4% of initial budget.

1981-1986: Republican president, mixed Congress, Cold War. Spending up from $1,448 billion in 1980 to $1,723 billion in 1986. $45.8 billion/year growth, or 3.2% of initial budget.

1993-1994: Democratic government, ‘peacetime’. Spending down from $1,908 billion in 1992 to $1,907 billion in 1994. -$0.5 billion/year growth, or -0.02% of initial budget.

2001-2002: Republican president, mixed Congress, War on Terror begins. Spending up from $2,021 billion in 2000 to $2,165 billion in 2002. $72 billion/year growth, or 3.6% of initial budget.

2003-2005: Republican government, War on Terror. Spending up from $2,165 billion in 2002 to $2,472 billion in 2005. $102.3 billion/year growth, or 4.7% of initial budget.

So, in five trials of non-divided government, we got an average of 2.9% growth, and in three trials of divided government we got an average of 2.9% growth. Way to go, you budget hawks who sat out! The only way this term will see a gain for you guys, is if we write ‘end of War on Terror’ on that final line, and that’s only if things don’t go the way they did after Vietnam.

And given that the story of this election is Vietnam II, I wouldn’t be very hopeful that Bush will diverge from Nixon on this matter of spending.

 

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