I said this about the Lieberman/Lamont/Schlesinger race, in reply to a Lamont supporter sometime before the Democratic primary:
Hypothetical though:
Among the 54% who went for Kerry [in Connecticut in 2004], Lamont beats Lieberman 67/33. Among the 44% who went for Bush, Lieberman wins 67/33 thanks to the party nominating an anti-war candidate. The result goes like this:
- Lieberman 47
- Lamont 36
- Republican 17
What do you win even if your guy wins?
It turns out that the answer is to raise so little money, that Lamont must give millions of his own money… just to fall even further behind than I predicted. I had an 11 point advantage, but Lieberman is up 17 according to Quinnipac. The poll also shows Schlesinger, the Republican, drawing only 5 instead of 17, so that suggests to me Lieberman’s drawing more Republican support than I dared hope before the primary.
So I guess to score myself, I’ll look to see how close Lamont lands on that 36%.