On my first commentary site, Rob and I talked an awful lot about UN Security Council Resolution 1441. That was the one that the UNSC supported unanimously to order Saddam Hussein to cooperate fully with Hans Blix. He didn’t, and so it meant war.
I believe UNSCR 1701 has the potential to work the same way. Passed unanimously, it tells Hezbollah to disarm, and Lebanon to take control of all its territory. I don’t think Hezbollah and Lebanon will cooperate, though, so it’s going to be incumbent on select Member States to force it to happen.
But the biggest variable at work: Ehud Olmert, Israel’s Prime Minister. If it’s true that the only reason this resolution was brokered by the US to begin with, is that he wanted to withdraw from Lebanon, then it’s not hopeful that he’ll sock it to Lebanon once the deal is broken.
We shall see, though, whether it takes a new Israeli election to get it going or not.