Were the 2006 Congressional defeats the foreshocks of a map-shifting earthquake in the 2008 election, or were they just the same thing that normally happens in the sixth year of a Presidency?
I have examined the last seven sixth year midterm elections (Roosevelt, Eisenhower, Kennedy/Johnson, Nixon, Reagan, Clinton, Bush) and the losses the President’s party lost in both houses of the Congress, and I’m unconvinced that there was anything to learn long-term from the last election.
Here’s a simple chart that sums it all up:
As we can see, President Bush was well within historical norms for his sixth-year drubbing, coming up average for his Senate losses but doing better than the three straight sixth year Presidents who lost exactly 48 House seats. Clinton got off easy, true, but already lost big in 1994, and every other President suffered. Yes, including Reagan. He lost eight Senate seats. Maybe I should say instead that Judge Bork suffered most from that sixth year election.
But look at what happened to the incumbent party two years later:
- Democrats held in 1940.
- Republicans lost a nail-biter in 1960.
- Democrats lost big in 1968, but only after their best candidate was shot.
- Republicans were in it, against all odds, late in 1976.
- Republicans held in 1988.
- Democrats lost a race even closer than 1960s in 2000.
So are we starting far, far behind in 2008? I think not. John McCain has at least as much chance to win as President Roosevelt, Vice President Nixon, Vice President Bush, and Vice President Gore did. And them’s good odds.
Update: It also helps when John McCain is getting a head start on his rivals, who are off having their Cobra Civil War and all.
European unions are getting antsy and calling strikes all over the place. They’re trying to bully the governments into giving them free money, with higher fuel prices as the excuse.
So once again, we have evidence that demolishes the theory that high fuel prices for Americans are caused by the exchange values of the dollar.
P.S.: That this Marxist nonsense goes on – and is rewarded – suggests to me that no matter what’s going on in our own economy, western Europe’s going to be a step behind us competitively.
Kobe finally started getting by Bowen just before halftime, and it was all over despite a 16 point Spur lead in the first quarter.
Jerry West out of nowhere awarded the trophy. He pretended to be impartial for a while (“us… all….”), but finally at the end was just grinning, so at the end when he said “Good luck in the Finals,” he threw in “please win four more games.” It’s pointed out to me that “When you’re the Logo, you can say what you want.”
Kobe was just grinning the whole time, you can tell he just loved it that Jerry West was there for that. He’s the original Finals MVP for the Lakers and the whole league, after all.
Now bring on the East.
It’s $10 a share for Bear Stearns. It’s not a total wipeout, but when it’s down from $158, I’d say the moral hazard of the Fed’s actions supporting this deal is pretty close to nothing. But yet some will still call it a bail out.
There’s just no reasoning with people who play with the language like the Cheshire Cat, I suppose.
From the fears that Sen. McCain would be vastly outspent this year, come the fears that McCain is raising too much money for himself and the party from donors writing large checks.
Interesting.
I go to the mall to get a new watchband. The Lakers flags are everywhere. I’m waiting to cross the street to go home, a guy stoped at the light yells out the window “Yeeeeeah go Lakers!” I was started then laughed and gave a thumbs up. So I then go into Carl’s to get a late lunch. The cashier gets all excited. “Go Lakers!”
You’d never know the Lakers have made it back to the Conference Finals and are up 3-1.
I am wearing a gold Lakers T-shirt, but I’ve been waering them for years. Nobody got this excited last year or the year before, heh.
Via Slashdot Science (so it’s a week old), President Bush signed the Genetic Non-Discrimination Act into law on the 22nd. This bill would prevent the proper assessment of medical risk based on improving medical technology, increasing the costs of medical insurance for all Americans, which of course shows a fundamental misunderstanding of what insurance is.
To be fair, though, there as only one vote in the House against this bill, and none at all in the Senate, so this silliness extends beyond the Presidency and to our entire caucuses in the Congress.
In essence, insurance is a gamble. You, the purchaser of insurance, are betting that at some point, you will get sick/lose your house in a flood/get in a wreck/die prematurely. The only reason anyone would take such a bet, is that the insurance company both gets to set the amount of money you must bet, the payoff if you “win,” and conditions in the contract that make it an unfair bet.
So life insurance won’t pay off if your death is self-inflicted, flood insurance can’t be purchased in the private market in areas that flood routinely, and people with pre-existing medical conditions cannot be insured for coverage of those conditions. To buy insurance on that last point, is analogous to betting on the roulette wheel after the wheel was already spun, and the ball already fell on its number. It’s not fair to the house, and in insurance, the insurance provider is the house.
Yet, Rep. Louise Slaughter (D-N.Y.) is cheering this and Republicans are quietly going along with it:
“This is a tremendous victory for every American not born with perfect genes – which means it’s a victory for every single one us,” said Representative Louise Slaughter (D-NY). “Since all of us are predisposed to at least a few genetic-based disorders, we are all potential victims of genetic discrimination.”
“Today marks the beginning of a new era in health care,” continued Slaughter. “Americans can finally take advantage of the tremendous potential of genetic research without the fear that their own genetic information will be used against them.”
The 22nd did mark a new era of medical care; on that I agree. It marked the day Republicans rolled over without a fight on an attack straight at the heart of free market medicine. Our ability to pool risks and pay for medicine privately is endangered if insurance firms cannot account for risks properly by avoiding the sure losses of pre-existing conditions. So when this bill exacerbates the problem, and the push for socialized medicine continues, let’s remember who to thank.
Heh.
This is nice. Thirty point win over the Spurs? I’ll take that any day.
What a game. 14-0 run starting whent he Spurs went up 20 and the boobirds came out in LA, making I think best Laker playoff run since the one in the fourth quarter of game 7 of the 2000 Western finals. MVP time all the way.
Hand it to Phil, too. Running out the lineup with Farmar, Vujacic, and Bryant to spark things up, as well as changing up the defense to make Duncan adapt. He should have been coach of the year.
The Spurs won’t be rattled though. I think they’re too experienced for that.